{"id":95954,"date":"2008-07-02T11:27:00","date_gmt":"2008-07-02T11:27:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/weblogs.madrimasd.org\/\/universo\/archive\/2008\/07\/02\/95954.aspx"},"modified":"2010-01-22T03:48:15","modified_gmt":"2010-01-22T02:48:15","slug":"%c2%bfhacia-una-nueva-gobernanza-mundial-la-globalizacion-cuestionada-por-el-capitalismo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.madrimasd.org\/blogs\/universo\/2008\/07\/02\/95954","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfHacia una Nueva Gobernanza Mundial?: La Globalizaci\u00f3n Cuestionada por el Capitalismo"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hoy d\u00eda 2 de Junio de 2006, el bolet\u00edn de noticias Terradaily <\/span><\/b>ha publicado la siguiente columna: <\/span>Walker’s World: The new era of state rules<\/font><\/span><\/a><\/span>. Su autor un tal Walker. \u00bfPero quien es <\/span>Martin Walker<\/font><\/span><\/a>?<\/span>. Pinchando sobre su nombre lo sabr\u00e9is. No \u201ces moco de pavo\u201d precisamente. Los lectores habituales conoc\u00e9is sobradamente mi opini\u00f3n sobre la globalizaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica<\/span><\/b>. No voy a aburriros con m\u00e1s de lo mismo. Economistas muy afamados comienzan a replantearse las \u201cbondades de la bobalizaci\u00f3n\u201d<\/span><\/b>. Y este es el caso. Desde luego, personalmente no firmar\u00eda muchas de sus apreciaciones. Sin embargo, su an\u00e1lisis no tiene desperdicio<\/span><\/b> y os lo dejo tal cual. Una propuesta frente al estrepitoso fracaso de la globalizaci\u00f3n y un retorno a secuestrar el poder de las empresas para devolv\u00e9rselas a los gobiernos<\/span><\/b> (que al menos, quer\u00e1moslo o no, son nuestros leg\u00edtimos representantes en los pa\u00edses democr\u00e1ticos). El que comiencen a cuestionarse las reglas del juego desde la c\u00fapula se me antoja un buen s\u00edntoma<\/span><\/b>. Quiz\u00e1s las cosas puedan volver a cambiar hacia un mundo \u201cun poquito mejor\u201d<\/span><\/b> (que no el que la mayor\u00eda de nosotros queremos). Algo es mejor que nada. No pretenden ir hacia adelante, sino dar un paso atr\u00e1s. Sin embargo <\/span><\/b>tal como est\u00e1 el Planeta\u2026\u2026.<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/o:p><\/span> <\/p>\n

Martin Walker<\/font><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

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Que hable de Thatcher and Reagan me pone los pelos de punta.<\/span><\/b> Sin embargo, Walter toca un punto crucial que tambi\u00e9n lo es para m\u00ed<\/span><\/b> (como para Santiago Grisol\u00eda). Se trata del crecimiento demogr\u00e1fico<\/span><\/b>, as\u00ed como del envejecimiento de la poblaci\u00f3n<\/span><\/b> (incluso en China, aunque no en la India y otros pa\u00edses asi\u00e1ticos), al margen de la crisis alimentaria y el calentamiento clim\u00e1tico. Ya defend\u00ed tal tesis en otros post<\/span><\/b>.  <\/span>Lo peor de sus augurios es que acierte de pleno y existan ciclos de 30 a\u00f1os<\/span><\/b>. En otras palabras, que para 2040 retornar\u00edamos a las andadas con el libre comercio. \u00a1Toquemos madera!  Reitero que lo que m\u00e1s me ha interesado es que no es el punto de vista de un economista antisistema, precisamente<\/span><\/b>. Y de ah\u00ed la importancia de su an\u00e1lisis para los que s\u00ed lo somos. \u00bfVientos de cambio? Esperemos que s\u00ed<\/span><\/b>, aunque sea para retroceder y no para avanzar hacia el \u201cholocausto can\u00edbal\u201d de la globalizaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica actual<\/span><\/b>. <\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

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Juan Jos\u00e9 Ib\u00e1\u00f1ez<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

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Terra Daily<\/o:p><\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Walker’s World: The <\/span>new era of state rules<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

by Martin Walker
Oxford, England (UPI) Jun 30, 2008

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The next stage is upon us. There will be more powers to the states, and probably more international regulation and governance, more managed trade and more government intrusion.<\/span><\/b> If we are lucky, this coming era may even resolve the challenges of climate change and the looming pension and healthcare crises. But sometime around the year 2040, the conventional wisdom will change and the cycle will turn again<\/span><\/b>.<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

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The headlines around next week’s Group of Eight summit meeting in <\/span><\/b><\/span>Japan<\/span><\/b><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> will focus on <\/span>North Korea<\/span><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> and <\/span>Iran<\/span><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region>, on poverty and climate change<\/span><\/b>. But the background music, which began swelling at last month’s meeting of G8 finance ministers, is signalling the coming of something far more profound: <\/span>the end of the 30-year era of free trade and free markets<\/span><\/b>. <\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

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Charlie McCreevy, the European Union’s commissioner for financial services, let the cat out of the bag this month when he confirmed the EU was<\/span><\/b> \u00abstrengthening its existing regulatory contacts on financial services\u00bb with the United States, Japan, China, Russia and India. His officials are already drafting a new set of international rules on credit rating agencies with their <\/span>U.S.<\/span><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> counterparts. Moreover, the EU is pushing for what McCreevy calls \u00abwell targeted and robust internal governance reforms\u00bb<\/span><\/b> on the whole credit rating system. This would include statistical modeling, monitoring their quality and redrafting the way they are paid and financed to avoid conflicts of interest, and the imposition of \u00aban appropriate corporate culture.<\/span><\/b>\u00bb <\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

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This sounds as dry as dishwater. It isn’t. In the wake of the subprime mortgage disaster and Wall Street’s financial crisis, a new era of regulation is upon us. And this time, it will be global rather than national in scope<\/span><\/b>. It has been a pretty good 30 years since Margaret Thatcher in <\/span><\/b><\/span>Britain<\/span><\/b><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> and Ronald Reagan in the <\/span><\/b>United States<\/span><\/b><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> began campaigning for<\/span><\/b> an end to the previous era of social democratic and moderately left-wing governance that had prevailed since the end of World War II. This was the era that brought about <\/span>Europe<\/span><\/st1:place>‘s welfare states and <\/span>America<\/span><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region>‘s \u00abgreat society,\u00bb with high taxation, powerful labor unions and a highly intrusive government role in strategic planning for the economy. <\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

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That era ended with Thatcher and Reagan<\/span><\/b>. Taxes fell. Free trade pacts were agreed and tariffs slashed. Government-owned enterprises were privatized<\/span><\/b>. Union membership declined sharply. Inflation was tamed. Innovation and entrepreneurs were encouraged, and successful risk-takers were not just allowed to keep most of their rewards but were hailed and praised as role models. <\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

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Globalization was promoted and <\/span><\/b>accelerated, and currency controls were slashed. The <\/span>Soviet Union<\/span><\/st1:place> collapsed. <\/span>China<\/span><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> thrived under its own form of statist capitalism. More people emerged from poverty into the new global middle class than ever before in history.<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

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Thatcher’s <\/span>Britain<\/span><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> stopped declining and steadily overtook the economies of <\/span>Italy<\/span><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> and <\/span>France<\/span><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> and found last year that it had a higher GDP per head than either Japan or <\/span>Germany<\/span><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region>. And the <\/span>U.S.<\/span><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> economy is now about one and a half times larger, allowing for inflation, than it was when Reagan was elected. The 30-year era of free trade and free markets is now ending<\/span><\/b>. The immediate cause of its demise has been<\/span><\/b> the financial crisis and the demand for more regulation of the financial markets. The underlying causes are even more potent. The first is demographics<\/span><\/b>. Led by <\/span>Europe<\/span><\/st1:place> and <\/span>Japan<\/span><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region>, the world’s population is aging fast<\/span><\/b>. In 1998 for the first time, the number of people over 60 in the developed world exceeded those below the age of 15. In about 30 years from now (on current trends), that majority of the elderly will apply to the whole human population.<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

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That means that pensions and health costs for the elderly are going to grow very sharply, and that will mean more taxes and an ever greater role for the state in collecting and redistributing income. The second underlying cause is that the losers from the globalization process are winning the political battle over the far greater number of beneficiaries<\/span><\/b>. Well-organized and vocal opponents of free trade in the G8 countries <\/span><\/b>have managed to delay and weaken and virtually sabotage the Doha Round of the world trade talks. Even the most obviously benign and useful bilateral free trade agreements, like the one with <\/span>Colombia<\/span><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region>, are blocked in the U.S. Congress. In the EU, the world food crisis has provided the French and their allies with the perfect cover to block any further attempts to reform the dreadful Common Agricultural Policy<\/span><\/b>.<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

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The third underlying cause is climate change. Globalization has produced so many more consumers of oil and food and water that the biosphere is straining to cope<\/span><\/b>. The fact that both <\/span>U.S.<\/span><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> presidential candidates support a cap-and-trade system to tackle climate change means that a <\/span>Kyoto<\/span><\/st1:place><\/st1:city> 2 is now very nearly inevitable. This again will mean more regulation, more taxation and not just greater power for government but a<\/span><\/b> much more prominent role in setting industrial strategy.<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

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Shortages of food and water and other resource constraints are likely to have a similar effect. The era of big government is back<\/span><\/b>. Maybe this is no bad thing. The excesses of the Reagan-Thatcher era, from the ridiculous pay of <\/span><\/b>financial manipulators and hedge fund hustlers to the erosion of the manufacturing industry in the <\/span>United States<\/span><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> and <\/span>Europe<\/span><\/st1:place>, have exacted a toll in public opinion. The Anglo-Saxon economic model looks rather less impressive today than it did in the Clinton-Blair years. A free market does not yet seem to be much use in tackling the demographic challenge or climate change<\/span><\/b>.<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

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Maybe it was inevitable. There does seem to be a 30-year cycle in operation<\/span><\/b>. We have had 30 years of free market monetarism led by economist Milton Friedman and central banker Alan Greenspan<\/span><\/b>. That was preceded by 30 years of welfare statism led by economist Lord Keynes <\/span><\/b>and accommodating central bankers. And that was preceded by 30 years of orthodox economics led by the Bank of England’s Montagu Norman and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act that brought us protectionism and the Great Depression. The next stage is upon us. There will be more powers to the states, and probably more international regulation and governance, more managed trade and more government intrusion. If we are lucky, this coming era may even resolve the challenges of climate change and the looming pension and healthcare crises. But sometime around the year 2040, the conventional wisdom will change and the cycle will turn again. <\/o:p><\/span><\/b><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hoy d\u00eda 2 de Junio de 2006, el bolet\u00edn de noticias Terradaily ha publicado la siguiente columna: Walker’s World: The new era of state rules. Su autor un tal Walker. \u00bfPero quien es Martin Walker?. Pinchando sobre su nombre lo sabr\u00e9is. No \u201ces moco de pavo\u201d precisamente. Los lectores habituales conoc\u00e9is sobradamente mi opini\u00f3n sobre la globalizaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica. No voy a aburriros con m\u00e1s de lo mismo. Economistas muy afamados comienzan a replantearse las \u201cbondades de la bobalizaci\u00f3n\u201d. Y este es el caso. Desde luego, personalmente no firmar\u00eda muchas de sus apreciaciones. Sin embargo, su an\u00e1lisis no tiene desperdicio y\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[615,606],"tags":[],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":4}},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madrimasd.org\/blogs\/universo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95954"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madrimasd.org\/blogs\/universo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madrimasd.org\/blogs\/universo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madrimasd.org\/blogs\/universo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/26"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madrimasd.org\/blogs\/universo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=95954"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.madrimasd.org\/blogs\/universo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95954\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":134700,"href":"https:\/\/www.madrimasd.org\/blogs\/universo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95954\/revisions\/134700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.madrimasd.org\/blogs\/universo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=95954"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madrimasd.org\/blogs\/universo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=95954"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.madrimasd.org\/blogs\/universo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=95954"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}