Descripción

This lecture put the current adult longevity revolution in perspective with the main gerontological models of the years 1980-1990, either those of the "rectangularization" of the survival curve, compression of morbidity or successful ageing. We try to give a precise definition of this revolution and show how it differs from the usual demographic transitions. We describe the consequences and especially the dynamics of the emergence of new age groups, nonagenarians and centenarians, in term of health, disability and frailty. Our discussion follows three avenues. The first is the existence of a possible trade-off between longevity and functionality. The second is the difficulty to admit the variability of ageing trajectories; which leads to propose unrealistic models. Finally, the third concerns the difficulty of experts to anticipate a continuation of this revolution.

The Demography Today lecture series aims to promote and communicate scientific work on demography through the dissemination of research and the training of specialists in issues related to demography, Big Data, longitudinal records and health, while informing society, in an accessible way, about issues currently in the foreground of scientific and political debate, such as the limits to longevity, pension systems, aging, emerging diseases, migration and low fertility. This lecture series enjoys the exclusive support of the BBVA Foundation and has been co-organized with the Spanish National Research Council and the LONGPOP project (Methodologies and Data Mining Techniques for the Analysis of Big Data based on Longitudinal Population and Epidemiological Registers). The LONGPOP project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 676060.